Major Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

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Recent devastating tropical cyclones highlight the urgent need for improved early warning systems, mitigation measures, and preparedness to save lives.

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Headlines raise questions among many Americans about whether climate change is increasing cyclone frequency and intensity.

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People want to know if scientific observations support these trends and if scientists attribute them to climate change.

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Understanding the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones is crucial, given their socio-economic consequences on landfall.

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Climate models suggest a decrease in global cyclone numbers, but anticipate an increase in the intensity of the strongest storms (Categories 4 and 5) by up to 25%, accompanied by heavier rainfall.

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Rising sea levels due to climate change will heighten the risks of storm surges, posing a greater threat to coastal regions.

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Coastal development increases the population at risk, exacerbating vulnerability to tropical cyclone storm-surge flooding.

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Confidence levels are lower for certain cyclone projections, such as changes in tracks and translation speed, especially at the individual basin scale.

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